How India stands to lose, gain in Trump presidency

Unlike a range of other countries, India is reasonably confident it can maintain a decent working relationship with the mercurial US President-elect.

- Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

The strategic and economic foundations of the India-US relationship have been remarkably steady for two decades.

Indian officials have said they expect Donald Trump 2.0 to be more transactional and less generous, but still committed to improved relations.

His circle of advisers has sent at least two emissaries to New Delhi in the past few months. They have indicated a desire to move relations to a higher level, suggesting that the outgoing Joe Biden administration had allowed ties to be too overrun by concerns over issues such as "democratic backsliding".

The Trump campaign was marked by criticism of India's goods tariffs (as well as tariffs imposed by other countries). Though he gets into a lather about manufactured items, he is curiously unconcerned about services trade. This is wonderful for India, which runs a goods deficit with the US but a handsome $100 billion-plus services surplus with the US.

This is one reason why India didn't make it to Trump's pre-inauguration tariff hit list. But he will still want a deal.

During his first term as President, Trump's team had indicated a desire for a trade agreement where the core issues would be data and digital policy.

A five-point agenda was worked out and an April date set, but the pandemic intervened and India and the US never got the negotiations rolling.