Trump 2.0 will slow, not kill, the global energy transition

NO EDICTS FROM WASHINGTON CAN HALT THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE US ENERGY TRANSITION. DESPITE TRUMP'S CLAIMS OF A "NATIONAL ENERGY EMERGENCY," THE UNITED STATES ALREADY PRODUCES MORE OIL THAN ANY COUNTRY IN HISTORY

- Ian Bremmer

Donald Trump's return to the White House has raised fears that the global energy transition will be thrown into reverse. The United States (US) president has vowed to "drill, baby, drill," roll back environmental regulations, and end the "green new scam." As the earth continues to warm—this January was the warmest on record, and 2024 was the first year with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—and decarbonisation metrics still lag scientific net-zero pathways, many worry we're about to witness a worldwide slowdown in the shift away from fossil fuels.

But Trump couldn't kill the green transition during his first term, and he won't succeed this time either. The reason is simple: Technological breakthroughs, steep learning curves, and plummeting costs have made clean energy sources cheaper than fossil fuels in most places. Whereas in 2017 the revolution was just getting started, by now it has reached escape velocity. This momentum is being driven not by politics or government intervention but by markets. That deep-red Texas leads the nation in renewable deployment is a case in point: Politics will no longer hold back the American energy transition.