Ukraine under huge pressure, but not out

Washington’s suspension of military assistance will not lead to a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines, but it could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular.

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US deliveries of military aid via Ukraine's western border halted at 3:30 a.m. (0130 GMT), a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, after US President Donald Trump paused assistance late on Monday following an extraordinary clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. The move suspends any further drawdown from $3.85 billion of military aid approved by Congress that Trump inherited from his predecessor, Joe Biden. It also appears to halt deliveries of military equipment already approved by Biden.

“It’s pretty significant, but not nearly as impactful as it would have been earlier in the war because Ukraine is far less dependent on direct US military assistance now than it was previously,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment. “But it will definitely affect Ukraine, and the effect will become more pronounced after a couple of months as inventories become depleted,” he told Reuters on Monday, shortly before the aid cut was announced.