On autism and vaccines there are lies and statistics

During an interview in late April with Dr. Phil, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reiterated his appeal to parents on vaccine safety: “We live in a democracy, and part of the responsibility of being a parent is to do your own research.”

- Lynne Peeples, Tribune News Service

The US health secretary has also announced his own investigation, pledging to find an answer to the autism “epidemic” by September. It’s an ambitious goal. It’s also a realistic one but only if he already has an answer in mind. To tell the story you want with statistics, you don't have to lie or fabricate data—though that happens, too. More often, statistics are manipulated, figures massaged and results skewed through subtler means. Sometimes, it’s sloppiness or unconscious bias at work. Other times, the distortion is deliberate. Whether the numbers attempt to tell a story about the economy, immigration, education or public health, we should empower ourselves to recognise the deception. Vaccine data are far from immune to statistical trickery and its consequences.

Not only might individuals skip a vaccine and get unnecessarily sick, but the viral spread of misinformation can poke holes in the herd immunity needed to protect a population. One new, untampered statistic tells a chilling story: A meager 10% drop from today’s already dangerously low measles vaccination rates could spark an estimated 13-fold increase in annual cases. Statistics wield incredible power. I developed a deep respect for them during my first career as a biostatistician. Today, as a journalist, I see numbers leveraged for good and for bad. I've seen them help the public and policymakers interpret complex data, detect patterns and make better decisions — evidenced in my reporting on data dashboards during the COVID-19 pandemic. I've also seen data withheld and statistics doctored for less-than-noble aims by chemical companies, the gun industry, police departments, the US military, climate change deniers and vaccine skeptics, to name a few.