Future of coffee: How provenance, storytelling are redefining value

Just a few weeks ago, a farm in Panama sold a kilogram of Geisha coffee for over $30,000. Alongside the unique flavour profile, it was branding that commanded the premium, with high-end coffee shops from around the world specifically bidding to secure the highly sought-after Hacienda La Esmeralda coffee. This signals a deeper shift in the global coffee trade that will define the decade ahead.

- BY MIKE BUTLER

The global coffee industry valued at over $200 billion and supporting 25 million farmers is undergoing a transformation as profound as it is overdue. With climate instability upending supply chains, younger consumers reshaping demand and producing nations fighting to retain more value, the very architecture of global coffee trade is being redefined.

Our latest coffee-focused Future of Trade report maps this evolution in sharp detail. At its core is one big idea: the value of coffee is no longer just extracted at the point of export or consumption, but created at the source.

For decades, coffee was traded like oil — anonymous, commoditised and price-driven. But this model is crumbling. In its place, a new value chain is emerging — one shaped by rich storytelling, direct-to-consumer platforms and significant brand equity built at the farm level.

We are now seeing a shift similar to the centuries-old wine industry. Just as top vineyards command premiums based on terroir, heritage and story, so too are the most forward-looking coffee growers, crafting identities that elevate them beyond commodity pricing.