Food inflation to remain range-bound in 2026

Favourable base to wane, prices inch up

- SANDIP DAS

AFTER FOOD INFLATION hitting elevated double digits in October, 2024, agri-commodities prices have softened and retail food inflation has remained in the negative zone for the last six months because of robust harvest and adequate imports.

Taking into consideration robust rabi sowing and adequate stocks, the retail food inflation in 2026 is expected to rise moderately. A waning of a favourable base is still likely to ensure the inflation rate to be below the high levels reported in 2024, experts said.

"The monsoon will decide the future of food prices in India. Globally, La Nina is likely to end by early 2026 and in case Indian monsoon rains suffer, the prices might feel the pinch by end of 2026,"Shweta Saini, CEO,Arcus Policy Research, said. Saini stated that fundamentally, crops are in good shape currently, and crop balance sheets look strong.

Food inflation rose to 10.87% in October, 2024 on year and since then it has fallen and was reported at (-) 3.91% in November, 2025, largely driven by base effect and subdued prices of vegetables, cereals, pulses, meat, eggs and spices.

"Most of the prices of agricultural commodities would rise by around 5% due to base effect in 2026,while rise in food inflation would be moderate," a leading trader of agricultural commodities said.