Trump and beyond

The escalation between India and Pakistan quickly veered towards a full-blown conflict last week; the United States’ intervention came as a bolt from the blue, especially as it followed Vice President JD Vance’s statement that the India-Pakistan conflict is “none of our business”.

- Harsh V Pant Vivek Mishra

Vance’s statement is consistent with both the US stand on the India-Pakistan dynamic since the 1999 Kargil conflict as well as with the evolving Trump doctrine where external intervention without tangible economic interests seems a policy of the past. A quickly escalating conflict where new domains of attack and counter-attack began to be tested, even as India hit multiple bases across Pakistan and showcased a robust aerial defence capability, forced the US to urgently engage both sides diplomatically.

The US’ climbdown from its earlier position of non-intervention was done to provide guardrails, especially to prevent Islamabad from its habitual recourse to nuclear brinkmanship. However, Trump’s rather curious balancing act between India and Pakistan through a tweet, hinting at Pakistan as a potential trade partner of Washington, has generated significant heat in India. If achieving a ceasefire was the immediate intention, it may be understandable. Now that the ceasefire has been achieved, Delhi should make its red lines clear to Washington, especially in relation to India’s expectations from the latter vis-à-vis the India-Pakistan dynamic.