Can anything stop Vietnam’s growth spurt?

IN A LACKLUSTRE global economy, Vietnam's problems are good ones to have. The key challenge for this star Southeast Asian exporter is hitting a sky-high target for growth this year.

- DANIEL MOSS Bloomberg

One of the country's top statisticians says it will be "extremely" difficult for the expansion to reach 8.5%, the target the government has set (and one that no consequential economy is likely to log). But Vietnam has a great starting point. It did better than almost anyone expected last quarter and the outlook is still solid. Even coming close would be a win, given the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Vietnam's performance in the last three months has been truly impressive. Gross domestic product climbed 8.2% from a year earlier, the fastest clip since 2022, and second-quarter numbers were revised upward. The star was manufacturing, which has jumped 10% since January, and was still humming through September. Some of this surge reflected a rush to get orders filled and shipped before Trump's levies took effect in early August. But there's little sign things have cooled significantly since then.

This week, the Southeast Asian country clinched a long-waited upgrade from FTSE Russell to emerging-market status, putting it in the same category as China, India, and Indonesia, and potentially adding billions in capital flow to its markets. The benchmark stock index is up 33% this year, in part reflecting anticipation of the shift, but also an acknowledgement of a strong economy.