Preparing for the unpredictable: Why contingency planning must become Sri Lanka’s national discipline

AFTER the recent deluge, we have seen a flood of commentary, analysis, causes, criticism, and recommendations.

- By Sunil G. Wijesinha

This article takes a different path. Its purpose is not to assign blame, but to highlight a discipline that Sri Lanka must urgently embrace which is contingency planning. As the Japanese wisely remind us, the focus should be on identifying what went wrong and preventing its recurrence, rather than searching for who was at fault.Cyclone Ditwah, followed by unprecedented flooding, now stands among the worst natural disasters in our recent history. Nearly 700 lives were lost, and more than a million people were displaced as rivers overflowed and vast communities were inundated. While nature’s force was undeniable, the scale of the devastation reflected another reality which is the limits of our preparedness. As extreme weather events intensify worldwide Sri Lanka must move decisively from reactive response to proactive readiness.

A new era of climate risk

Sri Lanka is no stranger to natural hazards, monsoon floods, landslides, droughts, coastal erosion, tsunamis. Yet Ditwah was different. Its speed, scale, and cascading impact with storms, floods and infrastructure failures marked a new category of disaster. As global climate patterns shift, such compound events will become more common, not less.

This calls for a new mindset. Emergencies are not exceptional, they are inevitable. Preparedness cannot rely on goodwill, improvisation, or last-minute coordination. It must become routine in every ministry, provincial council, district administration, and enterprise.

The most powerful instrument for this shift is contingency planning, the discipline of anticipating disruption and preparing actionable responses before disaster strikes.

Prediction alone is not enough