When 2 elephants fight

The US-China trade war has opened many possibilities for all swing states, and India is the most consequential of them. It has to rededicate itself to that Covid-era reform idea

- SHEKHAR GUPTA

Donald Trump brought clarity on his trade war with a 90-day hiatus for the rest of the world, while he upped tariffs to 145 per cent on China, which retaliated with 125 per cent. This is—and sorry, China, for borrowing your favourite metaphor for India—a duel between two mighty elephants. We know what happens when two elephants fight. The grass gets crushed. Three questions arise:

1. Is India grass?

2. Can India afford to be grass?

3. What can India do to avoid getting mauled in the melee like grass, and also turn it to its own advantage?

This superpower trade war has opened possibilities for all swing states, of which India is the biggest and the most consequential. At the very least, there might be things India can make for the US markets that the Chinese can't compete with, given these tariffs. Apple phones are the first example, but if you simply run your eyes over the list of Chinese exports to America, and add even a 30-40 per cent duty (145 per cent will be moderated ultimately), there will be tens of billions worth of export prospects on offer. Similarly, there are items on the American export list to China that India could substitute, given the tariff differential.

Cheap thing, it would usually be, to take advantage of a friend and ally's predicament. Not in these times—made unusual by Mr Trump, who's been particularly arrogant and disrespectful with allies. He said they all keep calling and saying, "Sir, please give me this deal, I will do anything...they are all kissing my ass." This wasn't said about China. It was said about 75 others, most of the prominent ones among them—Europe, Australia, and India—being allies and friends.