WHAT'S COOKING IN KHARIF?

As the harvest gains momentum in this season of high food inflation, what's in store for crop prices?

- SANJEEB MUKHERJEE

With the consumer price index-based inflation touching a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, driven largely by food prices, all eyes are now on the kharif harvest to gauge the trend of inflation in the coming months.

Vegetable prices, seasonal in nature, saw a sharp jump as production got impacted due to the prolonged and intense monsoon. With winter setting in, prices of many vegetables are expected to come down. Onions, too, might cool down on new arrival.

Production scenario As per the first advanced estimate of the 2024-25 kharif season, released a few weeks ago, rice production in the just concluded kharif season is expected to be a record 120 million tonnes, 5.9 per cent more than the same season last year, due to a massive jump in acreage, the surplus monsoon, and favourable prices.

Some reports say the digital crop survey, employed for the first time this kharif by the Central government, has accurately assessed the paddy acreage, which is why the overall production numbers have gone up.

Due to the good prices fetched by rice, some farmers may have shifted from pulses and cotton to paddy this year.

Retail inflation in rice, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (combined), was in double digits for most of the past year (from October 2023 to October 2024) before tapering off slightly in the latter half of the year from July onwards.

A good rice output should help boost exports and further ease curbs.

Here is a look at how the other main kharif crops are expected to fare.

Maize The first advanced estimate showed that production of maize is expected to rise to 24.54 million tonnes, up almost 10.3 per cent from last season. This should help cool down prices and ensure adequate availability for user industries, including grain-based ethanol manufacturers.