Three trends that may shape India’s energy play in 2026

Experts predict crude sourcing shift, more clean energy and growing private sector role in renewables and nuclear power

- SUDHEER PAL SINGH

Fuelling change

(IMAGING: AJAYA MOHANTY)

The development trajectory of the energy sector in India will be shaped by three key trends this year: The evolving nature of the oil import mix by sources and crude grades; the rising share of clean fuel in the energy mix; and the continued rise of private capital in capacity creation in crucial reform areas, including renewables, nuclear energy and power distribution.

India will continue to rely heavily on crude oil imports in 2026, meeting 85-90 per cent of its domestic requirement through overseas purchases. While West Asian nations have traditionally been India’s primary suppliers of crude, import sources have shifted in recent years due to geopolitical disruptions and changing price dynamics. Following the Ukraine war, Russia emerged as India’s largest supplier, thanks to its deep discounts. However, as these discounts have narrowed, and logistical as well as geopolitical risks have increased, the lure of Russian crude has moderated, experts say.

“India’s crude sourcing strategy in 2026 is being driven primarily by economic and energy-security considerations. Going into 2026, the country’s crude import basket is expected to rebalance. Imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, India’s longstanding West Asian partners, are expected to rise, supported by term contracts, proximity, and supply reliability. In parallel, the United States is emerging as a fast-growing source of crude, reflecting both competitive pricing and deeper energy ties,” said Vibhuti Garg, director for South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.