Climate analysts mull over El Nino graph in 2026

As the world enters 2026, there is a growing interest among meteorologists and climate watchers on whether 2026 will turn out to be a full blown or evolving El Nino year, something which has consequences for India’s monsoon and also agricultural production and general economic growth.

- SANJEEB MUKHERJEE

Though, it is still very early days and any prediction made six months in advance has a greater chance of getting wrong and also unless the “spring barrier” is passed, nothing can be said with certainty. But some sections of world meteorologists have started predicting an “evolving” El Nino around May and June 2026, which is just when the Indian monsoon starts gathering steam.

According to the World Climate Service, “Spring Barrier” is often used to highlight the uncertainty in the outlook for ENSO (the El Nifio -Southern Oscillation) in the first half of the year, and it conveys the general idea that ENSO forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skillful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring.

EI Nino not only causes “below normal” monsoon rains in India but also can sometimes lead to long breaks within the four month June to September season.