After robust H1, economists upgrade full-yr FY26 growth forecast to 7.5%

With the first half (H1) gross domestic product (GDP) growth clocking 8 per cent, most economists have now upgraded their full-year 2025-2026 (FY26) growth forecast to 7.5 per cent, or above.

- ASIT RANJAN MISHRA

Group Chief Economic Adviser at State Bank of India Soumya Kanti Ghosh said, assuming 7.5-7.7 per cent growth in Q3 (October-December) and 7 per cent in Q4 (January-March), the overall growth for FY26 would be approximately 7.6 per cent.

Citing high frequency indicators, SBI in a research note said, credit growth of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) is slowly picking up in the current financial year and grew by 11.3 per cent for the fortnight ended October 31, compared to 11.8 per cent during the same period. Deposits grew 9.7 per cent from last year’s 11.7 per cent during the same fortnight. “There is a one-way causal relationship between GDP and ASCB (all SCB) credit, with increase in credit leading to higher GDP,” it added.

Chief Economist at Care Edge Ratings Rajani Sinha said she expected the GDP growth to moderate to around 7 per cent in H2 (October-March) of FY26 as the impact of front loading of exports fades and consumption demand moderates after the festival season.