Goldman boosts recession risk, sees Fed rate cut sooner

Goldman Sachs Group Inc economists raised their recession probability assessment and brought forward their timing of the next US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement.

- MICHAEL HEATH

Economists led by Jan Hatzius lowered their 2023-24 to Q4 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% and raised the 12-month recession probability to 35% from 30%, according to a research note dated April 6.

This follows “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to weigh on capital spending by more than we had previously assumed,” they said.