Can you really price global regime change?

US President Donald Trump's latest foreign policy and trade war salvos are upsetting global markets, but the question is whether these ructions will escalate or fade away, as was the case during the last 12 months.

- Jamie McGeever

The latter is probably more likely, but either way, it is apparent that investors are struggling to adequately price the fundamental shifts in the world’s geopolitical tectonic plates.

And the shifts that have already taken place in 2026 are truly breathtaking. The Trump administration has removed the leader of Venezuela, and now appears to be the Latin American country’s de facto ruler.

A violent crackdown on protests in Iran has killed thousands, with the threat of a US response still lingering.

And then there is Mr Trump's latest push to acquire Greenland from fellow Nato ally Denmark by any means necessary. The US-Europe alliance, and indeed the very rules-based global order built since World War I, appears to be in jeopardy.

The economic and financial terrain is a minefield, too. Mr Trump has issued a host of interventionist decrees on issues from credit card rates to mortgage-backed securities, while also pressuring US oil executives to invest billions in Venezuela. And lest we forget, his Justice Department is still threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Until now, though, this “Trumpian assault” on the US and global rules-based order — to borrow a phrase from Matt King, founder of Satori Insights — seemed at odds with the relative calm across markets.