Cambodia is 'cosying up to US'

And from an East Asian cultural perspective, this may be viewed as a form of betrayal, he said. “China will likely try to counter this by either expanding its investments in Cambodia to counter the US or strengthening ties with Thailand,’ he said.

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He said the US cannot afford to abandon its longstanding ties and strategic alliance with Thailand, and military facilities in U-Tapao in Rayong or Thap Lamu in Phangnga hold significance to the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

“So even China and the US increasingly focus on Cambodia, neither can drop Thailand as they both have the grand strategy to get control in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,’ he said.

Cambodia, he said, appears to be doing everything it can to attract international support in the conflict with Thailand, but he warned that there is a price to pay. Major countries usually assess their strategic interests before getting involved and Cambodia must prepare for the long-term risks of this strategy, he warned.

Thailand, meanwhile, must not underestimate Cambodia's geopolitical play, he said, adding that China and the US may become new players in the division of interests in the Gulf of Thailand which is already shared among Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

“This could turn the Gulf of Thailand into a flashpoint of regional geopolitics,” he said.

He said Cambodia's move to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice is unlikely to make much impact because Thailand, like the US, does not recognise the ICJ’s jurisdiction.