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BoT easing cycle to extend to 2026
Bangkok Post
|October 03, 2025
Slowing economy and low inflation key factors, says BMI
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The Bank of Thailand is expected to continue its easing cycle for the rest of 2025 amid a slowing economy. It has maintained its growth forecasts at 2.3% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026. Our 2025 forecast is in line with the central bank's. However, recent political instability adds downside risks to growth.
We therefore expect the central bank to lower its benchmark policy rate by a further 50 basis points, bringing it to a terminal rate of 1.00% by the end of 2026. We see this delivered in two rounds — one by the end of 2025, most likely in December, and another in the second half of 2026.
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