Australia should hope for Aukus to collapse

The Aukus partnership, the 2021 deal whereby the United States and the United Kingdom agreed to provide Australia with at least eight nuclear-propelled submarines over the next three decades, has come under review by the US Defence Department.

- Gareth Evans

The prospect of its collapse has generated predictable handwringing among those who welcomed the deepening alliance, and especially among those interested in seeing Australia inject billions of dollars into underfunded, underperforming American and British naval shipyards. But in Australia, an Aukus breakdown should be a cause for celebration.

After all, there has never been any certainty that the promised subs would arrive on time. The US is supposed to supply three, or possibly five, Virginia-class submarines from 2032, with another five newly designed SSN-Aukus-class subs (built mainly in the UK) coming into service from the early 2040s. But the US and the UR’s industrial capacity is already strained, owing to their own national submarine-building targets, and both have explicit opt-out rights.

Some analysts assume that the Defence Department review is just another Trumpian extortion exercise, designed to extract an even bigger financial commitment from Australia. But while comforting to some Australians (though not anyone in the Treasury), this interpretation is misconceived.

There are very real concerns in Washington that even with more Australian dollars devoted to expanding shipyard capacity, the US will not be able to increase production to the extent required to make available three — let alone five — Virginia-class subs by the early 2030s.

Moreover, Elbridge Colby, the US under-secretary of defence for policy who is leading the review, has long been sceptical of the project, and he will not hesitate to put America’s own new-boat target first.