The Risk Report

DONALD TRUMP'S STRIKE ON Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by U.S. Special Forces shocked governments around the world. Observers in the U.S., Europe, China, Russia, and elsewhere are left to wonder what Trump's bold use of force might mean for other countries: Colombia, Cuba, Iran, even Mexico and Denmark (read: Greenland).

- By Ian Bremmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR

But what about Venezuela itself? What do the strikes, arrests, and trial of Venezuela's President mean for that country's future?

First, the good news, at least for those who fear Maduro's capture will create a power vacuum that can be filled only with violence. The apparent ease with which U.S. soldiers found and arrested Maduro reflects an inside job, one coordinated in advance between the Trump Administration and Venezuela's military. It matters that Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, was quickly sworn into power with the backing of the country's Defense and Interior Ministers—a signal of continuity that Washington has accepted.

Rodríguez has shaken a defiant fist at the U.S. attack—saying she was pained by the “kidnapping” of Maduro and his wife—but Trump's clear willingness to use force and the need to stabilize her government, in part by removing the current U.S. oil blockade of Venezuela, will force a pragmatic approach.