The Risk Report

THE U.K., FRANCE, AND GERMANY—Europe's political core—begin 2026 with weak, unpopular governments under siege from populists on both the left and right, and a Trump Administration openly working to undermine them. None of these countries holds general elections this year, but all three face risks of political paralysis—and maybe lasting damage.

- By Ian Bremmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR

Among Europe's endangered centrists: Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer's U.K. government will be the first to face a serious political test. The Reform UK Party of Nigel Farage led national polls for most of the past year, and if it can carry that support through local election campaigns in May, the insurgent's momentum will force establishment Labour and Conservatives further to the left and right, respectively, to protect what's left of their popularity.

The deeply unpopular Starmer probably won't survive the spring, and his successor will come from the party's left, narrowing Labour's appeal still further. With the Conservatives having already imploded after a string of failed Prime Ministers, the two-party system that defined British politics for a century is fracturing.