House of Cards

Donald Trump faces negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in his second term—could his legacy of normalizing ties between Israel and Arab nations be a help or hindrance?

- ΤΟΜ O'CONNOR

AS THE MIDDLE EAST PREPARES FOR THE RETURN of Donald Trump to the White House, Saudi Arabia is looking to strike a deal with Washington reflective of its ascending geopolitical status and the vast changes in the region over the past four years.

Trump's election win in November came as Washington and Riyadh remained locked in negotiations toward a grand deal that would include U.S. security assurances for Saudi Arabia and closer cooperation in various fields, such as nuclear development. At the same time, President Joe Biden's administration has also sought to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the vein of the Abraham Accords a series of agreements that Trump oversaw with four Arab nations in 2020.

If the president-elect seeks to expand his own legacy of normalizing Arab ties with Israel to secure the deal with Riyadh that has eluded Biden's administration, Saudi observers say Trump will need to leverage his close ties with Israel to advance the cause of Palestinian statehood. "There is one crucial thing the Trump administration must understand well: it is wishful thinking on their part to assume that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords for free," Salman al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi political analyst, told Newsweek. "A Palestinian state is a must and an absolute prerequisite for normalization with Israel."

Newsweek reached out to Trump's transition team and the Saudi Embassy to the U.S. via email for comment.

The Palestinian Question

A two-state solution has long served as the basis for U.S. diplomacy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, now in its deadliest episode since the feud first erupted in 1948. The current war, sparked by the Hamas-led attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, has both brought the issue back into the international spotlight and threatened to upend traditional approaches.