THE WINDFALL STATE

THE CONGRESS HAD WON THE 2018 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS WITH ONE OF THE STRONGEST MANDATES IN THE STATE. WHAT WENT WRONG, AND HOW THE BJP STORMED TO POWER AGAIN

- RAHUL NORONHA

Every once in a while comes an election in India that tests the limits of psephology. The Chhattisgarh verdict is one such, where not a single survey gauged the mood of the people correctly. The comfortably placed Congress led by Bhupesh Baghel, which had been voted to power with the most comprehensive mandate in the state's history, saw a chastening defeat at the hands of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a party that had ruled Chhattisgarh for 15 years but which had been reduced to no more than 15 seats in the previous polls. It bounced back with a vengeance this time, raising its tally to 54 seats and 46 per cent votes, 13 percentage points higher than the last time. The Grand Old Party, meanwhile, was left smarting, reduced to just 35 seats, from the 68 it had won in 2018, though with only 0.8 percentage point reduction in votes. Of the 12 ministers in Baghel's cabinet, only three-a quarter-won. The BJP certainly did many things right. But what proved to be the Congress's undoing? Simply that it could neither understand the political undercurrents that had been pointing to trouble, nor could it save itself in time from the BJP's unsparing onslaught.

"The perception, created with huge effort and expenditure, made everyone believe that there is no alternative to Baghel," says journalist Sunil Kumar. "Even though the Congress had made numerous promises, it seems the corruption allegations took a toll. Congress leaders said corruption is not an issue in Chhattisgarh. Well, if it was an issue the Congress raised in Karnataka, why would it not be an issue in Chhattisgarh?" That is perhaps the most illustrative example of how the Baghel government misread its challenges.