A BOILING-HOT FIGHT IN MILKIPUR

The upcoming byelection in the assembly constituency of Milkipur, in Ayodhya district, carries immense significance for both the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP). Scheduled for February 5, it's a battle that could help shape the initial narrative for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. The Scheduled Caste-reserved seat fell vacant after the 2024 general election, when its veteran SP MLA Awadhesh Prasad famously fought and won the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat-under which Milkipur falls, as does Ayodhya. Coming within months of the Ram temple inauguration, that loss had dealt a bitter blow to the BJP: it was tantamount to Hindutva being humbled in its symbolic homeland. Thoughts of redemption will therefore be uppermost in the party's mind.

- Avaneesh Mishra

The BJP has fielded Chandrabhan Paswan, a first-time candidate, and a member of the Pasi community. The SP has put forward Ajeet, the son of Lok Sabha victor Awadhesh Prasad, in the hope that the lustre will pass on along with the baton. This makes the contest a direct face-off between two candidates of the same community. With the Congress and, interestingly, even the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) opting out of the fray, it's a bipolar contest in a seat where the Dalit vote totals 27 per cent. An SP victory in Ayodhya's politically charged landscape would signal that its expanded caste arithmetic is intact, putting it on course to BJP supremacy in Uttar Pradesh and generating some early momentum for the larger battle in 2027. Its old loyal cohort of Yadavs (15 per cent) and Muslims (8 per cent) make up a formidable near-quarter of the electorate-a fact that sealed the party's six victories here since 1991 (the BJP has won only twice, ditto the BSP). However, the SP may be bereft of a key goad for the Dalit consolidation behind it in the LS poll, with the narrative about the Constitution being 'u