A Disturbing Decline

Scotland's birth rate has plummeted, storing up problems for the country's future - is this is in part due to pressure on would-be parents?

- ALEX WATSON

AS a nation, we Scots appear to have put the business of having babies on the back burner.

Scotland's birth rate is currently at its lowest level since records began in 1855.

Over the last 70 years, the number of live births has halved. During 1953, 90,913 babies were born in Scotland. In comparison, National Records of Scotland reported a total of 45,935 for 2023.

The data looks drastic, but does it indicate a problem? Many countries are seeing a similar decline.

"We're not unique. It doesn't mean that we're not facing a challenge," says Glasgow University economics professor and chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, Graeme Roy. "Our population is, on average, slightly older than the rest of the UK.

"Put that and our low birth rate together, and what you have is a more challenging demographic profile.

"Our population will age, in the near term, more quickly than in the rest of the UK."

As people get older, use the NHS more, and potentially require access to social care, the state foots the bill. But a low birth rate means fewer adults of working age contributing taxes to pay to look after Scotland's older generations.

"So, the combination of a falling birth rate and an aging population over a decade, 15, 20 years, creates pressure on the public finances," Professor Roy explains.

"And, to be honest, that's what we are seeing. You only have to look at some of the pressures on the NHS.

"That's not just coming from challenges around Covid and all that - that's coming from increased demand from our population ageing."

It certainly seems to be in Scotland's best interests to attempt to boost its birth rate. Yet, some parents and campaigners argue that Scottish adults are actually being disincentivised from doing so.