"Geopolitics may encourage domestic technology development"

The US and Israel launched a large-scale military campaign against Iran on 28 February, targeting the regime’s leadership as well as military and security infrastructure.

- ANDREW KITSON

Beyond geopolitical ramifications, the conflict raises important questions about digital infrastructure resilience—from internet shutdowns and submarine cables to data centre risks and cybersecurity exposure.

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has analysed the potential ripple effects across global connectivity systems. Andrew Kitson, Director, Technology at BMI, discusses possible scenarios with Pratima Harigunani. Excerpts:

What is your overall outlook on this recent war with Iran?

The scale of the attacks aligns with our Country Risks team’s view of a conflict that could last several weeks if diplomacy fails. With the Tehran regime considering the attacks an existential threat, its response has targeted Israel and US military bases in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Civilian assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and Oman have also been affected at the time of writing.

Iranian forces have issued threats against ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. More recently, the Lebanon-based paramilitary group Hezbollah has attacked Israel, prompting a limited response and increasing concerns that the conflict could spread across the wider Middle East.

What about lights-out scenarios on the internet?

Monitoring systems such as Cloudflare Radar showed a near-complete cessation of internet traffic from early on 28 February, with subsequent sporadic spikes. These are believed to represent communications between government and military elites using rare “white-pass” mobile data SIM cards or laptops.

We believe the state has developed a shadow internet infrastructure accessible only to a small number of highly trusted individuals. This network is unlikely to have been affected by cyberattacks conducted over public internet infrastructure.