RED SEA CRISIS: HOW FAST WILL LINES RETURN AND AT WHAT COST?

As Red Sea attacks decline, global carriers weigh a cautious return to the Suez route. A rapid comeback could flood capacity and crash freight rates.

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As the first signs of potential calm emerge in the turbulent waters of the Red Sea, global shipping carriers are cautiously evaluating the prospects of resuming transits through this vital artery. The lingering disruptions, sparked by Houthi rebel attacks since late 2023, have reshaped international trade routes, inflated costs, and strained supply chains worldwide. However, with reports of fewer incidents beginning to surface amid shaky ceasefires, the crucial question now becomes “how quickly?” rather than “will the industry return?” The velocity of this resurgence could either precipitate a chaotic market crash or foster a measured stabilisation, influencing freight rates, charter markets, and global commerce for months to come.

Container lines operating in the region, such as those providing services to and from the Middle East and East Africa, offer a ground-level perspective on the evolving dynamics. These operators have navigated the crisis first hand, witnessing the hesitation among crews and the stringent assessments by insurers.

As of November 2025, the Red Sea corridor— handling roughly 12-15 per cent of global trade— remains a shadow of its former self, with Suez Canal transits down 70 per cent from 2023 levels, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

RED SEA CRISIS: A YEAR OF REROUTING

To understand the stakes of a potential return, it’s essential to recap the crisis’s toll. Since November 2023, over 190 Houthi attacks have targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, forcing major carriers like Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM to abandon the Suez Canal en masse.