INVEST WITHOUT ELON MUSK, WHAT'S TESLA REALLY WORTH?

IN THE WEEKS bracketing Donald Trump's victory on Nov. 5, Tesla's stock enjoyed one of the most explosive rides in the annals of publicly traded equities, gaining over 50% and almost half a trillion dollars in valuation in the span of just over a month.

- SHAWN TULLY

The surge reversed three years of poor performance. Investors had soured on the EV maker's weakening fundamentals and CEO Elon Musk's serial, unfulfilled promises of fully self-driving cars and an inexpensive mass-market model. But in October, Musk had pledged to start producing the long-awaited Cybercab by mid-2025. Far more important: After Election Day, investors reckoned that Musk's newfound status as the highest-profile member of the Trump economic team could restore Tesla's mojo. Musk's early wins in decimating branches of the federal bureaucracy via the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reminded Tesla believers of the Musk magic that makes the seemingly impossible look achievable.

The spell wore off fast. The controversy Musk has unleashed now that he's center stage in the Trump administration—firing civil servants at home, backing far-right political parties abroad—along with slumping sales and a massive Cybertruck recall, has crushed Tesla's shares, more than erasing Musk's Trump bump. Put simply, the wild ride is pushing many investors to examine what they've long ignored: the imbalance between Tesla's sky-high share price and its bedrock value as a super-capital-intensive automaker.

So there's no time like the present to examine the company's business fundamentals—and separate out the Musk Magic Premium, the extra market value awarded for the futuristic ventures that still rally believers. We posed what's arguably the biggest question in American business: What would Tesla be worth without Elon Musk?