Maduro Falls, Oil Keeps Calm

The fall of Venezuela's president is a blip in global oil markets, with decades of decline having erased its clout

- Samreen Wani & Himani Kothari

Despite the high stakes capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces, the geopolitical shock caused little more than a ripple in the Indian and global oil markets.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, saw only a modest 2 percent uptick on January 5 before settling back. WTI, the US equivalent, followed a similar trajectory and stayed under $60 per barrel. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, notes that while Indian markets opened with a predictable risk-off script—stocks down, yields up and the rupee weakening—crude prices and NYMEX futures declined, in a break from historical precedent. He found it striking, considering how prices surged even when the US struck Iran, despite the country having negligible supply. Gold and silver, however, gained predictably.

NO GREAT EXPECTATIONS