From Coalitions To Currencies To Celebration, Thoughts On The Continent

When I was packing my bags W to leave South Africa at the end of November 2022, the country was going through political lobbying and hobnobbing that seemed to be far more fragmented than I had witnessed from my first visit in 2004.

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As I had predicted in 2004/5 and have spoken and written about for years, the time for true democracy in the country has come. This is not about any one individual or event, but history is evidence that nations emerging from any oppression or a change in system take time through disillusionment, to cast their old beliefs/ misplaced loyalties and embrace change. The greatest example of this political change was seen in India that has gone through a very similar transition in its political system after 1947.

The Indian National Congress party lost national consensus in 1977 (30 years post-Independence), after which there was a long era of coalition governments, the most successful of which was the BJP-led alliance from 1999 to 2004. No other coalition government between 1977 and 1999 managed to survive a complete five-year term in office. The Congress party in India was almost annihilated in the 2019 elections when the party failed to secure 10% in parliament (less than 50 seats in a house of 543). It took 30 years to lose power and 72 years of dynasty politics for the party to be completely routed through implosion. There is no better lesson in political history than this experience to learn from. As I had written in 2021, the era of coalitions is likely arriving in South Africa and so has the emergence of new political parties that will provide the checks and balances that are desperately needed. There will be expected fragmentation in the provinces; the jury is now out whether the ruling but bankrupt African National Congress (ANC) will be able to hold on to a 51% electoral majority vote in 2024. Sadly, this process will bring with it a period of continued uncertainty and indecisiveness further compounding the problems that the country already faces.