SA citrus: juice prices, export estimates, and market opportunities

While the citrus industry faces challenges like compliance hurdles in the EU and geopolitical risks in the US, strong pricing trends, global supply gaps, and improving growing conditions suggest that South Africa’s citrus producers are in a favourable position.

- Absa AgriBusiness

Orange producers ended 2024 on a strong financial note due to favourable global juice prices, despite a slight contraction in exported volumes.

Record-high juice prices were driven by major disruptions in Brazil's citrus industry, including citrus greening and drought. Brazil’s 2024 orange crop was the lowest since 1988. However, production is expected to recover in 2025 as La Niña brings some relief from the dry conditions experienced in 2024.

In Brazil, around 80% of oranges are processed into juice, with only 20% going to the fresh market. As production starts to rebound and demand cools partly in response to 2024's elevated prices, juice prices have dropped rapidly.

Since peaking in December 2024, global orange juice prices have fallen by nearly 50% (see graph). This suggests that global orange prices may trend downwards in 2025 and beyond.

LEMONS

Lemon markets saw an average start in 2024, buoyed by a bumper crop from Spain. However, supply constraints from some Southern Hemisphere exporters, most notably Argentina, which experienced excessive rainfall during the blooming period, lent some price support during South Africa’s marketing season. At the beginning of 2025, EU lemon volumes declined by about 4%, mainly due to lower yields in Spain. Additionally, growing quality concerns in the EU, where a widening gap is emerging between marketable fruit and actual production, created a window of opportunity for early South African lemons.