How US tariffs impact the SA blueberry industry

The South African blueberry export sector is currently experiencing heightened challenges arising from macroeconomic developments, most notably in its evolving trade relationship with the US, writes Zama Sangweni, an agricultural economist at Absa AgriBusiness.

- Zama Sangweni

In the period following “Liberation Day” this year, the US announced the imposition of a 30% tariff on all South African exports. While framed as a response to a perceived trade imbalance rather than a formal tariff policy, the measure, which came into effect on 9 August 2025, has generated significant concern across agricultural value chains.

The principal risks are associated with margin compression and the potential erosion of market share. High-value commodities such as citrus, table grapes, and nuts are particularly exposed, given their relatively high export orientation toward the US market.

Nevertheless, it is critical to also consider the secondary and indirect implications for subsectors less directly affected by the tariff regime. Blueberries represent one such case and serve as the focus in this piece.

SA BLUEBERRY PRODUCTION

Blueberry production in South Africa came in with lower estimates this season, showing a slight decline following a 10% crop loss caused by frost events in the northern production regions of the country.