Iran-Israel Ceasefire Offers Only Temporary Relief As Global Energy Threat Looms

The 12-day deadly conflict between Israel and Iran, brought to a halt by a ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, has served as a wake-up call for the rest of the world. Continuation of the war and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have caused irreversible damage to the global economy. Not only would it have had a severe impact on energy security, but it could also have triggered a regional and possibly global war. At one point, even the use of nuclear weapons was on the table.

- Khondkar Abdus Saleque

Israel initiated the conflict by launching deadly airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and assassinating top military leaders and senior scientists. Iran responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and military installations. At one stage, without waiting for congressional approval, the U.S. President ordered the U.S. Air Force to carry out direct attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites using bunker-busting bombs. Iran retaliated with a measured counterattack on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Then, surprising the world, after the NATO leaders' summit in The Hague, U.S. President Donald Trump announced at a press conference that the conflict between Iran and Israel had come to an end and was unlikely to resume. But the global concern now is: has a permanent ceasefire really been achieved?

This write-up does not aim to dissect the war itself, but rather to analyze its probable impacts and consequences.

Let's revisit what Donald Trump said during the press conference on June 26: "Because I dealt with both, and they're both tired, exhausted. They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out."

If we conclude from this, it seems both Iran and Israel lost significant military capabilities during the war, limiting their ability to continue. Iran's potential to weaponize its nuclear program has likely been set back considerably. Meanwhile, Iranian missiles and drones inflicted major damage on Israel's defense infrastructure. Despite this, Israel and the U.S. may not have achieved their ultimate goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear capability or triggering regime change in Tehran. Moreover, Israel continued its genocide in Gaza, which raises the possibility of the conflict reigniting at any moment.