FROZEN SKIES FOR AVIATION

The closure of airspace between India and Pakistan represents one of the most disruptive consequences of the post-Pahalgam geopolitics in the region. What began as a temporary security measure during moments of crisis has evolved into a prolonged aviation deadlock with economic costs for both nations. For India, it will be an economic hit for the airlines, longer travel time, fewer non-stop flights, but for a bankrupt Pakistan, it will mean loss of millions of dollars in overflight fees

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The airspace between India and Pakistan remains one of the most politically charged voids in global aviation — a 3,323-kilometre frontier, where not a single commercial flight has crossed directly for nearly two weeks. What began as a temporary closure during the 2019 military standoff post Pulwama has hardened now into a permanent aviation blockade, creating an invisible iron curtain in the skies that costs airlines $1.3 million daily and forces passengers into eight-hour detours for what should be 45-minute flights.

The financial impact has been catastrophic for airlines. This geopolitical fallout has now evolved into a commercial crisis, with early industry estimates placing the annual loss for Indian carriers at approximately ₹7,000 crore (around $850 million).

The closure of Pakistani airspace is particularly disrupting the routes connecting India to Europe and North America, most notably international flights departing from Delhi, Amritsar, and Lucknow. Over 1,200 flights each month are now forced to take longer detours, adding up to 1.5 hours of additional flying time per journey to North America. This translates into a staggering cost of nearly ₹29 lakh per flight, driven primarily by higher fuel consumption, increased crew costs, and reduced operational efficiency.

Flights to the Middle East, though covering shorter distances, are also impacted. With an average delay of 45 minutes per sector, each affected route is incurring an additional ₹5 lakh in costs. These mounting expenses are compounding operational challenges such as payload limitations—forcing airlines to fly with fewer passengers or cargo—and tighter crew duty windows, which complicate scheduling and increase turnaround inefficiencies.