Are We Really In The Fourth Industrial Revolution?

- Mike Bruton

Although I am nothing more than a retired biologist, I disagree with the views of the eminent German economist and founder of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Professor Klaus Schwab, who has proposed that we are in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

I believe that we are in, at best, a Post-Industrial Revolution, even an Anti-Industrial Revolution, or maybe the First Digital Revolution. Professor Schwab is, however, right in predicting that human societies (and economic systems) will be severely disrupted by the current technological revolution, and that many societal norms will be challenged, even upended. Previously, in the early 1990s, the US military had accurately predicted that the future would be characterised by VUCA: increased Volatility (rapid, unpredictable change), Uncertainty (unknowable or unpredictable future trends), Complexity (many interwoven parts) and Ambiguity (open to different interpretations that are not always obvious).

The First Industrial Revolution (18th and 19th Centuries) was driven by steam and characterised by a shift from agrarian to industrial economies, increased urbanisation, burgeoning iron and textile industries, and improvements in vehicular transport. The fuel for the Second Industrial Revolution (late 19th to early 20th Centuries) was electricity, and it saw advances in electronics, telecommunications, motorised transport and mass production techniques. The Third Industrial Revolution (20th Century) was fuelled by nuclear and, increasingly, by alternative ‘green’ energies, and saw advances in synthetics, computers, electronics and telecommunications.

Pros and cons