THE MAKE OR BREAK YEAR

HOW NARENDRA MODI NEGOTIATES 2021 WILL DETERMINE WHETHER HE EMERGES AS A STATEMAN OR FINDS RE-ELECTION IN 2024 DIFFICULT. FOR THE OPPOSITION, IT MAY BE A LAST CHANCE TO GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER TO STOP THE MODI JUGGERNAUT

- Raj Chengappa

In a marriage, they call it the seven-year-itch when the romance sours and partners start looking for better prospects. You could say the same about Indian politics, and the relationship of prime ministers with their electorate after seven years. Indira Gandhi seemed invincible in 1971 after the Bangladesh War but, by the seventh year of her tenure, the oil shocks of 1973 and student agitations that year gave birth to the JP movement, which ultimately led to her defeat in 1977. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance seemed certain of re-election in 2004 in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s seventh year at the helm, but they underestimated the strength of the Opposition coalition and paid the price. After convincing re-election in 2009, Manmohan Singh and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance were cruising—till the corruption scandals in his seventh year as prime minister sealed the UPA’s fate in 2014.

Narendra Modi is in his seventh year as prime minister and all hell seems to have broken loose around him. A quad of daunting challenges confronts him: the continuing health threat posed by Covid-19, an economy devastated by the pandemic, Chinese aggression on the Line of Actual Control, and the prolonged agitation by farmers protesting against the recently enacted farm laws. So far, Modi has remained resolute in his intentions and appears calm even as his government is buffeted by raging storms. In 2021, he needs to successfully weather these challenges to be seen as a statesman. Or else, the year ahead may dim his and the BJP’s chances of winning the 2024 general election.