A Bellwether for Democrats

The race for a newly created Colorado U.S. House seat may depend on Latino voters and offers some clues about the November midterms

- By Adrian Carrasquillo. Photograph by John Lund

While it is unclear how voter perceptions of President Joe Biden's performance will affect the November midterms, particularly with regard to Latino voters, a Colorado House district nestled between the northern Denver suburbs and the more agricultural town of Greeley is a likely bellwether for Democrats nationally.

Colorado had seven congressional districts until this year, when an independent commission created the new 8th Congressional District in the wake of the 2020 census. It sits on a political razor's edge, with Democrats holding a slim 1.3 percent advantage in statewide races from 2016 to 2020. The 2022 midterms will be the first contest for the seat. Latinos make up 38.5 percent of the district's population, the largest such percentage in the state.

As part of its work in drawing up the new district, the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission looked at the hypothetical winners and margins of victory in statewide races going back to 2016 if their proposed district had been in place at the time.

The results are illuminating. In the 2016 presidential contest, Donald Trump would have won by a 1.7 percent margin, although Hillary Clinton won the state of Colorado by a 4.9 percent margin. Although Democrat Jared Polis won the 2018 race for governor by a whopping 10.7 percent margin, he would have just squeaked by in today's 8th district with a 1.9 percent margin. And although U.S. Senator Democrat John Hickenlooper defeated his Republican opponent Cory Gardner statewide by a 9.3 percent margin, he would have barely carried the new 8th District by just 1.7 percent.