Investing In A Complex World

- Leon Kok

This year started on a high as various commentators talked up the Ramaphosian “New Dawn” following Jacob Zuma’s gross misrule, which nearly brought the country to its knees. No doubt President Cyril Ramaphosa faces huge challenges, but little comfort can be expected in SA in 2019 unless he radically repositions on a host of structural issues; accelerates the fight against corruption and ANC patronage; and, at the very least, continues to reduce the size of his Cabinet, which costs the country R163m in salaries alone.

Irregular public expenditure this year, for instance, is a monstrous R51bn and an indictment on ministerial commitment and competence. Sadly, there is far too much talk and too little action.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in fact, was spot on in its latest warning that SA’s economic growth will not exceed 2% in the medium term because of continued ruinous management and policy uncertainty. It expects growth to be at 1.4% in 2019, down from its April projection of 1.7%, and has set out a comprehensive list of what’s required.

Among major middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, SA has the lowest projected growth rate for this year, after Cameroon and Zambia, which are both projected to come in at 3.8%.