Food inflation plays a central role in headline inflation, but is also an important metric to track in terms of access to sufficient and sufficiently nutritious food for households. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) ‘Baseline Agricultural Outlook 2020 to 2029’ explores current and possible future trends in food inflation and their potential impact on household food security from an affordability perspective.
TRENDS IN FOOD INFLATION
For the past couple of years, BFAP has included a food inflation forecast in its baseline report that is in line with the statistical properties of the inflationary series in question (be it food inflation or one of its sub-categories). This has been done with relative confidence, as most inflationary series exhibit a degree of inertia that can be drawn on to forecast trends. This inertia is predominantly supported by demand-side trends that drive the longer-term trajectory of the series. Supply-side issues also play a role, but manifest more as shorter-term shocks away from longer-term demand-side trends.
As the country emerges from the strict COVID- 19 lockdown measures, however, it is unclear how these supply and demand dynamics will show up in metrics such as food inflation. In terms of demand, South African consumers have been under pressure from before the lockdown period, thus the restrictions intensified the economic pressures already evident from early 2019. The supply side, in turn, also experienced unprecedented shocks, such as a significant depreciation of the rand-US dollar exchange rate.
Esta historia es de la edición September 18, 2020 de Farmer's Weekly.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición September 18, 2020 de Farmer's Weekly.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
The big appeal of a small Karoo dorp
Van Wyksdorp in the Karoo may not be near to anything, yet exploring its surrounding mountain passes and staying there is a journey very much worth taking.
THE HITCHING POST
I am a retired man and have been a widower for two years. I would like to hear from fun-loving women between 50 and 60 years of age with a good sense of humour.
Theft of horsebox wheels: an ongoing problem
When thieves broke in at her farm recently, they came well prepared with the right tools to forcibly remove locknuts on wheels, says Dr Mac.
How much nitrogen is enough?
Nitrogen is key to profitable vegetable farming. However, the application of this element can be overdone, causing crop loss, or underdone, with the same result, writes Bill Kerr.
Review: Toyota Hilux GR-Sport III
Siyavuya Mbaduli takes a look at Toyota's highly anticipated GR-Sport Ill, which is making a strong entry into the local market as a rugged and ready off-road adventurer.
Medical cannabis production is easier said than done
The production of medical cannabis calls for extreme attention to detail and precision, as well as compliance with intricate legislative requirements and official demands. It also calls for perseverance, as Annelie Coleman found out on a visit to medical cannabis producers Coenie and Ilse Venter near Viljoenskroon in the Free State.
The biggest threats to horse health in South Africa
Janine Ryan looks at the most threatening diseases and conditions in South Africa that impact horses and other equines, including colic, laminitis and Cushing's disease.
Paper: part and parcel of the agriculture industry
Despite the everyday use of electronic communication and other technologies, society is far from becoming paperless. Wood-based paper products are woven into the fabric of our everyday lives. Paper is used in printing, writing and stationery, food packaging, packaging of other goods and medicine, for hygiene and insulation purposes, money, and even in jewellery and construction.
Challenges facing vet services in South Africa
Dr Paul van der Merwe, CEO of the South African Veterinary Association, spoke to Glenneis Kriel about the issues discussed at the World Veterinary Association Congress and how these related to the local industry.
Building a farming legacy from scratch
Mac Mabidilala is proof that you don't need to own land to get started in agriculture. He spoke to Glenneis Kriel about how he is realising his farming dream.