Lesson from 2009: An early monsoon isn't always a good one

The southwest monsoon arrived unusually early this year on May 24, which is eight days ahead of its usual onset date of June 1.

- SANJEEB MUKHERJEE

It arrived over Northeast India even earlier—that is, around 12 days ahead of its usual onset date. The last time the rains arrived earlier than this year was back in 2009, when the onset happened on May 23.

However, the early onset of the monsoon over Kerala is no guarantee of strong performance or uniform distribution across the country. There have been multiple instances in the past when the southwest monsoon arrived over the Kerala coast ahead of its normal onset date, but thereafter, its performance across the country was patchy.

More than the onset, it is the timeliness and distribution of rainfall in the next four months, starting from June, that will determine the future trajectory of agricultural production and economic growth in 2025-26.