Private sector jittery

Political quagmire threatens investment

- NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG PHUSADEE ARUNMAS LAMONPHET APISITNIRAN

As the leaked private conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen of Cambodia threatens the continuity of the government, politics has once again become a leading concern among the business community and investors.

A squabble among coalition parties is imminent as the premier has stated that she will remain in her post and not resign or dissolve parliament. Thailand's political situation is now fragile, significantly affecting the Thai economy which is also under pressure amid intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

It's time now for the business sector to prepare for imminent political changes, whether that be a cabinet reshuffle, a vote for a new premier, the dissolution of parliament or a coup.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO

Chak Reungsinpinya, managing director and head of research at Maybank Securities (Thailand), said the best-case and most likely scenario is for the premier to resign quickly but keep the governing coalition together under a new premier. This would entail the selection of new premier from a list of eligible candidates and ensure continuity of the government.