China's contradictions on climate

One typically hears two stories about China and climate change. The first is that China leads the world in greenhouse gas emissions as it continues to build more coal-fired power stations.

- Adair Turner

The second is that China leads the world in developing clean technologies that will allow all countries to decarbonise their economies at a far lower cost than seemed possible five or 10 years ago.

Both stories are true, and policy in China and the rest of the world must reflect that reality. In 2022, China emitted 15.7 gigatons of greenhouse gases, far more than America's six gigatons or the European Union's 3.6 gigatons. While these absolute figures reflect China's much larger population, its per capita emissions, at 11 tonnes, greatly exceed the EU's 8.1 tonnes and the UK's 6.3 tonnes; moreover, the latter two are on track to fall below 2 tonnes by 2040.

China has committed to achieve peak emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2060; but this still implies that its cumulative carbon dioxide emissions between now and 2060 could be around 250 gigatons.

By contrast, current commitments from the UK and the EU imply about 4.5 and 45 additional gigatons, respectively. Those 250 gigatons alone would use up much of the world's remaining "carbon budget" that can be emitted while still limiting global warming to "well below 2°C," as agreed in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. That means average planetary temperatures in 2100 will be hugely influenced by what China does, and minimally by the EU or the UK.