Arab fraternity weakens and hegemons rule

“This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper,” wrote T S Eliot in 1925, probably responding to the profoundly unsatisfactory aftermath of World War I (although with a poet, you never really know). At any rate, it’s happening again, this time in the Middle East.

- Gwynne Dyer

There was another hiccup in the ceasefire in Gaza on Oct 28: An Israeli soldier was killed by rogue Hamas fighters, and the Israel Defence Forces replied with artillery and air strikes that killed 104 Palestinian civilians. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is still trying to restart the war, but he will soon figure out it may not be necessary.

US Vice-President JD Vance downplayed the panicky talk, insisting that “The ceasefire is holding. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t going to be little skirmishes here and there.” Much more than skirmishes, really, but the man is basically right: The full-scale war that lasted exactly two years has stopped, at least for the moment.

President Donald Trump made Mr Netanyahu stop the war three weeks ago, but he could certainly restart it if he needs to. The Trump-Netanyahu relationship is like the Trump-Putin relationship: Mr Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) in the long run. Bibi accepted a similar ceasefire in Gaza for Mr Trump last January — and broke it without suffering any penalty last March.