US Economy: What's At Stake

A Donald Trump presidency carries high risks for global growth due to tariffs, while Kamala Harris is less profligate with far more fiscal discipline

- Uttara Choudhury

DEMOCRATIC presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are like chalk and cheese. Much has been made of the personality differences between the brash and unpredictable Trump and the more cool, calm and cerebral Harris. Nowhere do their differences stand out more than in their sharply contrasting plans for the US economy.

Former President Trump trumpeted his anti-globalisation credentials during his 2017-2021 presidency, imposing tariffs with a flourish—targeting imported aluminium, steel, electronics and practically everything from China. Trump has now proposed an across-the-board tariff of up to 20 per cent on imports, plus 60 per cent on China, while cocking a snook at India as the “biggest (tariff) charger of all”.

“I think they (India) probably charge more than, in many ways, China. But they do it with a smile,” Trump told members of the Detroit Economic Club.

Tarriff Man

Unfortunately, Trump’s protectionist policies will only antagonise countries and undermine US international competitiveness. It will certainly impact Indian exports to the US, which included 7,753 commodities last year. America was India’s largest trading partner, with a record $128.78 billion in bilateral trade in 2022-2023, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. India had a trade surplus of $28.30 billion with the US, with India exporting $78.54 billion to the US and America exporting $50.24 billion.

“Trump has positioned himself as an ‘America First’ protectionist, and tariffs will surely rise, further stoking inflation,” says Parag Khanna, author of The Future is Asian and CEO of AlphaGeo.