Drink From the Poisoned Chalice

Where do Israel, Iran and the US go from here? Will there be permanent peace or is this just a lull before a storm?

- Seema Guha

MISSILES no longer streak the night sky, and the thunderous explosions of falling bombs have faded. The 12-day war, initiated by Israel on Iran, came to an abrupt halt with a ceasefire imposed by US President Donald Trump, leaving behind damaged buildings, mountains of debris as well as shifting power dynamics, and the unfinished business of Tehran's nuclear ambitions hanging in the air. Where do Israel, Iran and the US go from here? Will there be permanent peace or is this just a lull before a storm?

Iran’s much vaunted air power lies exposed. Its bark is worse than its bite as it grasps at the ceasefire as a chance to rebuild its shattered image. Israel’s military reputation continues to overwhelm, but carrying the campaign much longer would have come at a cost. A drawn-out war of attrition would have drained both nations, Iran far more than Israel. As the dust settles, a new battle is emerging over the narrative, perception, and regional dominance.

For Trump, the US action was a high-stakes gamble to secure a quick foreign policy win. Speculation around whether America’s B-2 bombers succeeded in destroying Iran's nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow seems to have dimmed the initial euphoria. The president and his team are pushing back against these accusations by lashing out at the “fake” media, and insist that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” by the heavy bunker buster bombs. It is, however, too early to come to any definite conclusion. If true, it would be a dramatic victory for Trump. Meanwhile, Tehran, despite the setbacks, claims symbolic bragging rights, framing its resistance as proof of defiance and survival. Ina show of bravado, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared victory over Israel in his first message after the war, warning that the US “will definitely pay a heavy price” if it dares to attack Tran again. This is, of course, for domestic consumption.