ISIS Poised for a Comeback

Instability in Iran is creating an opportunity for Islamic State, experts tell Newsweek

- TOM O'CONNOR

WHILE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS in the wake of President Donald Trump’s surprise ceasefire announcement in a war that has raged between Iran and Israel—and drawn in direct U.S. intervention— another arch-nemesis of Tehran lurks in the shadows.

The Islamic State militant group, or ISIS, known for its ability to thrive in chaos and channel disaffected communities, operates both east and west of Iran and finds itself with a major opportunity.

With Trump’s promises of peace delivered with underlying threats of further military action against Iran—even suggestions of potential “regime change”—one of his former top generals believes the possible consequences of the Islamic Republic’s collapse is something that needs to be addressed.

“We should pay attention to this in our policy discussions,” Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general who served as chief of U.S. Central Command from March 2016 to March 2019, told Newsweek.

Votel described militant groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda as being “opportunistic by nature,” noting how “they will often take advantage of voids created by a lack of governance, disenfranchisement, unemployment, lack of opportunity, and social and economic disparity to develop inroads with vulnerable populations.”

“How successfully they can do this in Iran is a matter to be watched,” he added. “The state still controls the population, but the degradation of control will provide them with operating space in the long term, either to co-opt the population or to further utilize the area as a sanctuary for their planning and operations.” “If the Iranian state weakens and its ability to maintain domestic security weakens, this opens up opportunities for ISIS.”

Repeating History