RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: A WAR THAT CAN WRECK THE WORLD

Should the war spill beyond Ukraine there is a clear danger of the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

- MAJ GEN (DR) G.D. BAKSHI

A few days before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Indian Military Review had done an in house war-game. Based upon known Russian doctrines and recent demonstrated combat performance in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia and Syria, we had forecast that Russia's likely war aims would be to seriously wreck Ukraine as a functional military state and attempt a regime change. They would advance on multiple thrust lines but seek to retain ground only in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in the east and Crimea and the coastal areas in the south. These would be terrain objectives that would be retained at any cost. Russia had a huge advantage in airpower, missile power and traditional artillery fire power. Its T-72 and T-90 tanks were clearly superior to the Ukrainian T-80 tanks and the T-64, especially in optronics and night fighting capabilities.

The signature Russian way of war has been to use massive fire assaults to create shock and awe and thereby economise on force levels and military lives. This was most evident in WWII when Stalin called artillery the God of war and quipped that quantity generates its own quality. Russian forces have traditionally relied on “echelonment" of forces. Second and third echelon forces were kept in reserve and used to maintain relentless momentum in any offensive once the first echelon was used up or petered out. Based on this anchor premise most military observers felt that Russia could achieve these objectives in 10 days (two to three weeks at best) in Ukraine. This war however has now entered its second month.