Reverse migration of Bangladeshis may impact TMC in polls

Since the rollout of the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in West Bengal on November 4, border posts like Hakimpur in North 24 Parganas district have witnessed a marked increase in Bangladeshi nationals returning home, with district authorities and the Border Security Force noting that more than 1,600 Bangladeshi migrants had crossed back in just days. Many of these individuals had lived in India for over a decade, enrolling in voter lists and welfare

- SUPROTIM MUKHERJEE & TIKAM SHARMA

schemes by leveraging documents allegedly facilitated by political figures affiliated with the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

This sudden reverse-migration by thousands of Bangladeshi citizens living illegally in West Bengal back to their homeland, visibly unfolding at border check posts, has raised alarm bells among political parties, especially the TMC, which faces potential disruptions to its electoral stronghold in border constituencies.

Border districts such as North 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, and Malda-areas with substantial migrant populations-have historically delivered narrow electoral margins for the TMC. Political scientists and ground reports emphasise that these districts had seen voter enrolment surges, disproportionately reflecting communities of Bangladeshi origin.

The phenomenon is concentrated in districts adjacent to Bangladesh, where the disappearance of these migrants, mostly Muslims-many of whom reportedly registered as voters with help from local TMC leaders-may tip the scales in tightly contested Assembly seats in next year’s state elections.

Muslims constitute nearly 30% of Bengal's electorate-around 2.25 crore voters-with concentrations in over 100 Assembly constituencies and outright majorities in at least 74.

Analysts say that this bloc, combined with undocumented migrants who manage to secure voting credentials, has created a formidable political force.

Deletions based on SIR are expected to affect Muslim-dominated districts such as Murshidabad and Malda, potentially jeopardizing TMC's narrow victories in dozens of seats. While the TMC challenged this move in the Supreme Court, the BJP welcomed it as a step towards cleaner rolls.