BSP warns of wider BOP deficit in 2026

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects the country's balance of payments (BOP) deficit to widen in 2026 as external headwinds persist, prompting a downward revision in its latest quarterly forecasts.

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In a statement, bank now sees the country's BOP position is projected to post a deficit of $5.9 billion in 2026, equivalent to 1.2 percent of gross domestic product, wider than the $3.4-billion deficit or 0.6 percent of GDP projected in the previous quarter.

The revised figures reflect the BSP's updated outlook as of the fourth quarter of 2025, replacing projections approved by the Monetary Board in September.

For 2025, the central bank now sees the BOP deficit narrowing slightly to $6.2 billion or 1.3 percent of GDP, compared to an earlier forecast of $6.9 billion or 1.4 percent of GDP.

The BSP said the shift from a modest surplus in 2024 to deficits in 2025 and 2026 "largely reflects a continued current account shortfall arising from a sustained trade-in-goods gap and weaker services receipts."

The central bank noted that goods trade is expected to remain soft, shaped by weaker global demand, easing commodity prices and slower domestic growth momentum.