Disaster struck as preparation fell short

To understand the devastation in Hat Yai, we need to refrain from finding excuses and culprits and start looking at the factors that led to this catastrophe.

- Nuthasid Rukkiatwong

The handout photo dated Nov 26 shows people looking out from residential buildings surrounded by flood waters in Hat Yai. ROYAL THAI NAVY/AFP

(ROYAL THAI NAVY/AFP)

HYDROLOGICAL FACTORS

It is beyond dispute that the southern floods were caused by unusually heavy rainfall. Unlike seasonal rain, 10 provinces in the South were hammered by prolonged, heavy rains that fell in the same spots for many days, rather than a few. Climate experts and netizens described heavy rain patterns as “rainbands’ and “still rain” to describe atmospheric rivers linked to climate change. While I am not a meteorologist, I have no reason to doubt the validity of this theory.

INFRASTRUCTURE

However, rainfall is only one side of the equation. The other side is drainage capacity. For over a decade, we have placed our faith in “grey infrastructure” or concrete infrastructure.

We believed that the R1 Canal, with its impressive drainage capacity of 1,200 cubic meters per second (m³/s), combined with the U-Tapao Canal’s 400 m³/s, could handle the severe flood and shield the Hat Yai community. But while we focused on these man-made arteries, we ignored the slow, silent strangulation of our natural veins.

We have no accurate data on how much natural drainage capacity, such as wetland, natural canals or simply low-level areas that have served as natural flood drainage, have been obliterated over the last 10 years by unchecked urbanisation and unbridled construction of roads and other infrastructure projects.

The math was simple and unforgiving — too much rain, too little drainage.

MANAGEMENT PROBLEM

Make no mistake, a southern flood of this magnitude would lead to a crisis. But with good flood and disaster management, such a crisis could be contained. That was not what we witnessed in Hat Yai.